Risk Analysis, Security & BI

Azerbaijan and Armenia Conflict

It has been a few weeks since both International monitors and Armenia have signalled a warning about Azerbaijan rallying their armed forces along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh. This was backed up by claims that Azerbaijan was preparing some sort of offensive attack against the local ethnic Armenian troops. (Videos were taken that showed Azerbaijani vehicles graffitied with an upside-down ‘A’-symbol). Important to note: Armenia and Azerbaijan have already fought two wars over Karabakh in the three decades since the Soviet Union they were both members of collapsed.

On September 19th, 2023, Karabakh Armenian officials began to report that Azerbaijan’s offensive attacks were starting. The air raid sirens in Stepankert (or Khankendi is the de facto capital) were activated. Residents were told by Azerbaijan to evacuate via humanitarian corridors that would lead them to Armenia. However, the Azerbaijani forces control all of the entry and exit points and many locals fear they will not be allowed to pass safely. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims that they began their offensive actions because at least six people had died in two accidents in the Azeri Khojavend district, allegedly due to landmines installed by Armenia’s security forces. Continue reading…